The Time for an EU Referendum is Coming

For many years, I have strongly and consistently argued for the holding of a referendum on our continuing adherence to the EU after a period in which the efforts and energies of a Conservative Government have been single-mindedly devoted to the renegotiation of the terms of our membership. At that time, a choice to remain inside the EU on those terms or to withdraw should be offered to the country. Therefore, although it was a non-binding vote that with Labour and Lib Dem opposition stood no chance of success, it was with a heavy heart that, after listening anxiously to the debate, I was unable to support the motion before the House of Commons this week. The motion advocated a referendum bill next year for a referendum to be held in 2013 or 2014.

First, it seems to me that such a referendum, costing hundreds of millions of pounds, would mean that British politics for the next few years would be dominated by a time consuming and exhaustive struggle over wording and methodology, and then by the polarising effect of the vote itself, when at a time of grave economic and financial uncertainty our country will be fighting to escape the clutches of the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression. The additional political, commercial and economic uncertainty caused by the holding of such a referendum, particularly in the run up to the vote, would not be conducive to restoring the financial stability and confidence our country will desperately need to prevent it from being engulfed by the problems of the Euro Zone.

Secondly, I do not believe that the tactics of those who have, for honourable reasons, supported this week's motion, are likely to yield the altered relationship with the EU that we seek. The instrument of a referendum must be deployed at the time it is most likely to do good. The time is surely coming but I do not believe that time is now. Our EU partners will need to secure our consent for the new treaty that extension of fiscal union, which is the only logical response to the Euro Zone crisis, will require. That will be the cue for the sustained renegotiation, which our EU partners will know will be followed by a referendum on the terms of that new settlement, and which I believe to be the necessary precursor to gaining majority acceptance for a fundamental change in our relationship with the EU. However, if we are to win necessary support for an amicable adjustment of our relationship, we must concentrate first on helping members of the Euro Zone, in as much as we can, to avoid the impending meltdown. The announcement of the beginning of a process of that adjustment at this moment will not be likely to be understood or forgiven by our neighbours and allies.

Finally, such a renegotiation and referendum will not happen under the Coalition given Liberal Democrat opposition. It will require a Conservative Government committed in its manifesto at the next election to a referendum on the outcome of the new EU arrangements that must emerge from the current crisis. It is for this that I, and many of my Conservative colleagues will be working.